油價的秘密

　　1 Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　翻譯：過去經濟衰落的日子會不會重來?自從石油輸出國組織在3月決定減少原油供應，原油的價格便從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年和1979～1980年兩次可怕的石油恐慌，當時的油價分別漲了4倍和近3倍。前兩次的油價暴漲都導致了兩位數的通貨膨脹和全球性的經濟衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢?

　　2 The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

　　翻譯：本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這使油價又一次上揚。強勁的經濟增長勢頭，隨著北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內使石油價格漲得更高。

　　3 Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　翻譯：然而，我們有充分的理由預期這次油價暴漲給經濟帶來的影響不會像20世紀70年代那么嚴重。與70年代相比，現在多數國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額要小很多。在歐洲，稅金在汽油零售價的比例高達4/5，因此，即使原油價格發生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著。

　　4 Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

　　翻譯：發達國家對石油的依賴性也不如從前，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗量。軟件、咨詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業少得多。發達國家國民生產總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經合組織在比較近一期的《經濟展望》中估計，如果油價持續一年維持在22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這也只會使發達國家的石油進口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%～0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入減少部分的1/4。另一方面，進口石油的新興國家由于轉向了重工業，消耗能量更大，因此可能會受到石油危機的強烈影響。

　　5 One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

　　翻譯：另外一個不應因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與20世紀70年代不同，這次油價上升不是發生在普遍的物價暴漲及全球需求過旺背景之下。世界上很多地區才剛剛走出經濟衰落。《經濟學家》的商品價格指數與一年前相比總的來說也沒有什么變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。